Forecast Manager

Key Responsibilities:

- Responsible for the timely delivery of robust and transparent demand forecasts for strategic brands / therapy areas and key markets, including clear documentation of assumptions as well as levels of confidence / robustness

- Expertly / confidently present and defend forecast approach, methodology, assumptions and output to senior leadership

- Ensure objectivity and robustness around the forecast via identification of the right data sources and application of industry-leading modeling approaches, with sensitivity analyses around key variables to assist in opportunity and risk management

- Demonstrate a high level of understanding of the points of integration of our work and that of our colleagues.

- Develop new product introduction volume forecasts, both short-term and long-term, to foster into strategic and operational planning processes.

- Support continuous improvement and innovation to evolve the existing forecasting capabilities in terms of value-add, risk / opportunity / uncertainty, methodologies (including statistical, predictive, simulations / Monte Carlo, ranges, deep knowledge of key data sets) to inform forecasts and decision-making

- Proactively leverage appropriate information into forecast via a variety of tools and sources

- For Global Forecasting roles: develop new forecast models as business needs arise (e.g. pipeline / early assets, LCM, business development)

- For US Forecasting roles: participate in monthly S&OP process and submit volumes; develop weekly / monthly / yearly models and conversions

Educational requirements:

- Bachelor's Degree in relevant field

Experience:

- 6+ years of direct Pharmaceutical forecasting experience with an in-depth knowledge of forecasting techniques, models and approaches

- Good understanding of one or more disease areas and how patients move through their respective diagnosis and treatment pathways, including treatment dynamics

- Experience integrating insights from market research and secondary data analysis into forecast assumptions

- Experience utilizing a range of data sources and analytics involving standard data in the Pharmaceutical industry - e.g. IQVIA (MIDAS, DDD NPA, Monthly Xponent), claims data (Truven, Marketscan), epidemiological data, etc. For US forecasting, experience with TRx / NBRx / NRx data and methodologies

- Strong analytical expertise; excellent Excel, financial modelling and forecasting skills

- Project management experience including risk mitigation, planning and running multiple projects running in parallel

- Ability to build trusted relationships across a range of partner groups including Marketing, Analytics, Operations, and Technology

- Demonstrated experience in problem solving and continuous improvement

- Strong written and verbal communication

Preferred:

- Advanced degree preferred (e.g., PhD, MBA, Masters)

- Knowledge and experience in advanced statistical forecast methodologies and applied AI / ML / automation

- Experience working with Power Apps, specifically PowerBI

- For US forecasting, working knowledge of US Market Access and gross-to-net we can do this tom